Breaking Dawn - Part 1 should end up at around 140 million dollars this weekend, falling right in line with previous entries New Moon and Eclipse. The film should continue to do well through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend and could easily end up breaking $300 million in the U.S. I realize the majority of the online community has a great deal of contempt for the series, but its continued box office dominance is mind boggling. If ten years ago someone told you the biggest film series of the last few years would be about a Vampire and a Werewolf fighting for the affections of an actress unable to emote, you’d have laughed them out of the room. And rightfully so. No one saw this coming.
The real surprise this weekend is the audible ‘THUD’ from Happy Feet Two. George Miller made a similar crash landing around Thanksgiving back in 1998 with Babe: Pig in the City. I think it’s safe to say this time of year isn’t exactly a sweet spot for sequels to family films directed by George Miller. The film should end up in second place with just over $20 million in receipts.
After a solid opening last week, Immortals drops to third place with a $12.5 million take this weekend with a total U.S. take of $53 million. Adam Sandler’s latest Jack and Jill took a less drastic tumble and took in another $12 million for a grand total of $41 million. Neither film looks likely to cross the $100 million mark. For Sandler, who can usually take any film to $100 million in the States (unless it's a drama), this one has to be viewed as a disappointment.
Puss in Boots continues to perform above expectations at it slowly descends down the top ten, adding another $11 million this weekend and $122 million to its total. After four weeks of release, the film was still able to do half of what Happy Feet Two took in it’s first weekend. With The Muppets coming this week and The Adventures of Tintin bowing soon, expect both Happy Feet Two and Puss in Boots to take steep drops.
Tower Heist is hanging on for dear life. Another $7 million for the action comedy feels like a gift. Stars Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy usually have no problem carrying a movie to the hundred million dollar mark. But if there’s a trend in the North American box office the past few months it’s been that there’s no such thing as a sure bet. Unless you have the word ‘Twilight’ in your title, it’s a dice roll.
The other major surprise this week is the latest from Alexander Payne, The Descendants, which should come close to bringing in $1 million from 39 theaters. The movie expands to more cities this coming week. The box office and awards potential for the George Clooney dramedy seems fairly strong.
Next week brings the U.S. the long holiday weekend and a slew of family friendly fare. The Muppets, Arthur Christmas, and Martin Scorcese’s Hugo will all be competing for the same demographic dollar. There’s no shortage of family films in the marketplace, but will any of them break out and make a mint, or will they all have to settle for a piece of the pie?
Here's your top five for North America:
1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1
Weekend Estimate: $140 million
2. Happy Feet Two
Weekend Estimate: $21 million
3. Immortals
Weekend Estimate: $12.5 million ($52 million total)
4. Jack and Jill
Weekend Estimate: $12 million ($43 million total)
5. Puss in Boots
Weekend Estimate: $11 million ($122 million total)
Anghus Houvouras
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